The Right Fight (for Everyone Involved)

By Steve Kim: On early Wednesday evening, Floyd Mayweather sent out an announcement on his Twitter feed (@FloydMayweather) that he had chosen his next foe, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, and that this eagerly anticipated match-up would take place September 14^th at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. Just like that, it was done. No drawn out negotiations, no public posturing or back-and-forthing between the two parties. None of the usual machinations so associated with the boxing business took place here.

The biggest and most lucrative fight in all of boxing that can be made today is a reality.

Imagine that.

The early odds have Mayweather a three-to-one favorite over the redhead from Mexico but make no mistake about it; this is the bout the public yearned for. It can be argued that this fight really came together on the nights of April 20^th and May 4^th.

It was at the Alamodome in San Antonio where “Canelo” played to a full house of nearly 40,000 (drawing an impressive $2.7 million gate in a non-casino setting) and defeated Austin Trout to unify the junior middleweight titles. Alvarez didn’t just prove himself as a legitimate fighter; he firmly established himself as a marquee attraction in the States. This after essentially moving himself off the “May Day” undercard when he couldn’t get an assurance that he would be in the “Money” in the fall.

A couple of weeks later, Mayweather, kicking off his brand new CBS/Showtime pact, easily outpointed Robert Guerrero over 12 rounds, flashing his usual sterling form. However, the results at the box-office weren’t up to the usual standards. Tickets on the secondary market took a dive and, more alarmingly, the pay-per-view figures weren’t up to snuff. If you tend to believe those in the industry that Mayweather vs. Guerrero garnered “only” between 850,000 to 900,000 buys, then this was an economic disaster for Showtime.

On the surface, the numbers themselves weren’t bad but when you’re doling out $32.5 million to one of the participants (the listed purse for Mayweather on the Nevada State Athletic Commission report), then you have a problem. Doing the number of pay-per-view purchases it reportedly did, Mayweather-Guerrero is akin to the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox winning “just” 90 games. Maybe that flies in San Diego or Kansas City but with those teams’ payrolls and expectations, those types of results get people on the hot seat.

It was proven again that even Mayweather - like every other pay-per-view franchise - still needed a strong B-side, a dance partner the public would recognize. Guerrero, a pretty good fighter, simply wasn’t that guy. Unlike a Miguel Cotto or Ricky Hatton, he didn’t bring a sizable fan-base of his own. Alvarez brings a huge Mexican following that will flock to see him on both sides of the border. At the very least, “Canelo” ensures at least several hundred-thousand more pay-per-view purchases than Guerrero.

Showtime/CBS didn’t get into the Mayweather business to lose millions of dollars with each promotion. This is exactly what they were looking at if future foes included the likes of Amir Khan, Devon Alexander and Lucas Matthysse, all of whom have solid professional credentials but wouldn’t move the needle from a pay-per-view perspective.

Ask yourself this question: If Mayweather-Guerrero garnered 1.2 million buys (which is in the neighborhood of his other pay-per-view totals), do you really think there would’ve been the same impetus to make Mayweather-Alvarez so quickly? This corporation probably didn’t just want this fight. There’s a good chance they absolutely demanded it and the parties involved, from Mayweather’s adviser Al Haymon and Golden Boy Promotions CEO Richard Schaefer - who were jettisoned from HBO - needed to deliver this fight, lest their other clients have no network to ply their trade.

And Golden Boy, sensing Alvarez’s increasing impatience, needed to deliver this fight for their brightest young star. Does his talent equal his level of precociousness? I guess we’ll find out in September but at the age of 22, this young man isn’t afraid to dream big. You could argue he’s too young to know any better.

As for Floyd? Well, you could argue that he made a business decision. More than any boxer in recent history, Mayweather understands the bottom line. He could fight the usual suspects and keep collecting $32.5 million but without any of the accompanying upside he has been accustomed to. Yeah, poor Mayweather, having to settle for just his guaranteed purse. But hey, it’s human nature to always want a bit more or at least get what you’ve had in the past. What Alvarez represents to Mayweather is that “upside.” The chance to earn between $40 to $50 million came with a strong sprinkling of cinnamon - and nothing else.