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22 DECEMBER 2014

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The Lowdown On… Mayweather vs. Guerrero




SecondsOut breaks down the matchup and figures out who will win

 

By: Mike Sloan (mikesloan19@cox.net): Cinco de Mayo weekend is always the best weekend of the year because of two things: The Kentucky Derby and the biggest boxing event of the year (depending on what the September card will be). What’s even better is that the boxing event is always in Las Vegas and it always features at least one of the biggest stars in the entire sport.

 

This time around, it’s the world’s greatest boxer pound-for-pound, Floyd Mayweather Jr., taking on the tough-as-nails and extremely skilled Robert Guerrero. No, it’s not the dream matchup between Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao or even “Canelo” Alvarez, but for what it’s worth, Guerrero will suffice. The reason is because “The Ghost” is a tremendous fighter in his own right, a man who has been in or around the top ten P4P list for years.

 

For your enjoyment, SecondsOut.com has painstakingly combed through the Mayweather-Guerrero matchup, broke down each man’s skillsets in the most important categories of any fight, and figured out exactly what will happen. So if you want to know who will win the fight before it even happens, continue reading:

 

Punching power: All Mayweather does is run around the ring. He never fights back, he never punches. All he does is run away from his opponents. Or something nonsensical along those lines. The fact of the matter is that while Floyd doesn’t have the crushing power of, say, Lucas Matthysse or Nonito Donaire, he can flat-out crack. He flatted Ricky Hatton with basically one punch; removed a dopey and unsuspecting Victor Ortiz from consciousness; badly floored and rocked Juan Manuel Marquez; hurt Zab Judah, etc. No he’s not a huge puncher but if he tags you cleanly, you’re going to feel it and if you don’t watch yourself, Floyd will take you out. Guerrero has similar power, but since his hands aren’t as fast as Mayweather’s and considering he’s nowhere near as accurate, his power is a few notches below Money’s by default. Mayweather has stopped five of his last twelve opponents, so has Guerrero. The difference is that Guerrero hasn’t stopped anybody in over three years. Advantage: Mayweather.

 

Speed: Guerrero has fast hands. Mayweather has blurry hands. You can see a lot of Guerrero’s punches before they land. You rarely see Floyd’s. And Mayweather is much more precise. This one is kind of unfair. Advantage: Mayweather

 

Size: They are the same height, though Mayweather is the naturally larger man. Plus Mayweather has a two-inch reach advantage. This category is usually a vapid waste of time anyway. Advantage: Push

 

Age factor: This is really the only category that could come into play as an advantage for Guerrero. He’s six years younger than Mayweather and Mayweather has been getting hit a little more in his recent fights than ever before. If Mayweather somehow turns old and his reflexes aren’t what they used to be, then Guerrero has a shot at making this fight really interesting. Youth and a desire to prove everybody wrong could be huge. Advantage: Guerrero

 

Chin: It’s hard to tell if Floyd is chinny because he rarely ever gets tagged cleanly. Yes, he was stunned a bit by Judah and Shane Mosley had him in tremendous peril, but those are two future Hall of Fame fighters who pack considerable power in their fists. Joel Casamayor knocked Guerrero down when they fought, but Robert has never shown any indication that his jaw is made out of a light bulb. Since Mayweather has much better defense and Guerrero tends to get hit with too many punches throughout the course of a long fight, I’d put my money on Mayweather being able to stay on his feet longer than the Ghost. Advantage: Mayweather

 

Defense: This one is not a contest. Advantage: Mayweather

 

Experience: Also another no-contest. Though he’s been heavily criticized over the years for not fighting the absolute best of the best (blame the promoters more than anything), Mayweather has tackled some all-time greats: Diego Corrales, Marquez, Oscar de la Hoya, Hatton, Mosley, Judah, Jose Luis Castillo (twice), Genaro Hernandez, Arturo Gatti, Angel Manfredy, Miguel Cotto. Regardless if some of them were past their primes – name one fighter who has only fought elite guys at their physical peaks – Mayweather has laid them all to rest. Guerrero has locked horns with the likes of Casamayor, Selcuk Aydin, Michael Katsidis, Orlando Salido and Vicente Esobedo. No comparison. Also, Mayweather has been on the biggest stage under the brightest lights for about a decade; the same cannot be said about Guerrero. Advantage: Mayweather

 

 


Intangibles: Guerrero has absolutely nothing to lose and everything to gain with this fight. If he loses, he was supposed to. If he wins, he will have scored one of the biggest upsets in boxing over the past 20 years and it’ll almost guarantee him at least one more huge payday. Mayweather has to win this fight because he is expected to. However, here is where it gets interesting, but only if you fall victim to the typical “boxing expert” nonsense that, in all actuality, is bogus:

 

There has been much written about Floyd being inactive for a year and that he could have some ring rust. (After letting out a long sigh of frustration) there is no such thing as ring rust if you stay busy and in shape. You don’t have to always be fighting on a regular basis, but if you’re in the gym and staying fit – like what Floyd is famous for – he can take four years off and never miss a beat. He was flawless against Marquez (he was out for almost two years); he destroyed Ortiz, the sucker punch notwithstanding (he was out for about 18 months); after regrouping from the second round, he tore apart Mosley worse than anybody had before (he was out almost nine months). Go back and look throughout history of fighters being out for long periods of time and never missing a beat: Felix Trinidad against Ricardo Mayorga; Bernard Hopkins against Enrique Ornelas and Winky Wright; Muhammad Ali against Jerry Quarry the first time; etc. The list goes on and on. The excuse of “ring rust” is due to a fighter not taking himself seriously during his downtime and not staying in shape. Fighters who fall victim to the ring rust myth are those who balloon in weight between fights or who are inconsistent in the ring. The reason? Not continuously staying in boxing shape. “Ring rust” will not be a factor in this fight.

 

Another area of nonsense is the fact that Floyd will have his father in his corner and not his Uncle Roger. It’s been written many a time already that this switch will cause unknown damage and confusion in the corner, which will in turn hurt Mayweather. That’s laughable. Mayweather is so focused and in such great condition physically and mentally that he can have Bobby “The Brain” Heenan in his corner and it won’t make a difference.

 

Another good one is the six-fight, three-year deal Mayweather signed with Showtime/CBS will also be a distraction for him, creating more pressure on him to fight better. Does anybody actually believe this? The real intangible is that Guerrero is fighting on the biggest stage in the biggest fight of his life. Will he shell up and make too many mistakes because of nerves? All other intangibles are a wash. Advantage: Mayweather

 

The bottom line: Guerrero is great and he’ll fight well in this fight. He will give Mayweather a much tougher fight than most expect. However, as good as he is, he’s not on the same planet as Mayweather. It’d be cool to see him pull off the upset, especially considering all that he’s gone through with his wife’s leukemia and all, but the fairytale ends on Saturday night inside the MGM Grand Garden Arena. Mayweather will take a few rounds to figure out Guerrero’s southpaw style and once he does, well, just pop in tapes of all other Mayweather opponents over the years once he’s figured them out. The same will happen against Guerrero. The one difference is that Guerrero is so damned tough and so determined that he’ll open himself up to beautiful counters late and it’ll be what does him in. Mayweather will seize complete control and start to tag him over and over and over until the referee (or his corner) stops the fight in the 11th. Bank on it.

 

 

You can also contact Mike Sloan at www.facebook.com/mikesloan19 or follow him at www.twitter.com/@mikesloan19

 



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