Analyzing Floyd Mayweather Jr vs. Shane Mosley

By John Lumpkin: There is a tendency when evaluating this fight to look at Mosley’s speed and power as challenges Mayweather must answer. These are legitimate questions, but may not necessarily be the most pertinent questions to ask. Speed, timing, and reflexes are the enemies of the aged in this sport. Mayweather likely possesses these attributes in a quantity far greater than Mosley has ever experienced during his career and to face them now at the tail end of his career only adds to the complexity of his task. There is a good chance that the stiffness of the challenge of overcoming these obstacles for Mosley may consume the bulk of his attention during the course of the event rendering his strengths mute.

It does not really matter which fighter is quicker. We often hear that speed kills, but speed is only a part of the equation. Timing and accuracy also matter. The speed of the punch does not matter if you miss your target. While it is difficult to compare punch stats of different fighters, a historical look at both Mayweather and Mosley show a trend that Mayweather is not only more accurate with what he throws; he is far less likely to get hit.

Mosley’s most recent victory, sixteen months ago though it was, may be a bit deceiving as it left us all with the impression of a return to form. It was a brilliant triumph that should be lauded, but to gain perspective for this contest, we must dig deeper. Margarito was probably not at his best the moment he stepped in the ring as he had to have known that regardless of the fights outcome, his future was in peril. He did not fight with the same ferocity and when the going got tough, he folded. Not the Margarito we know.

Whether you buy into the idea that Margarito was somehow less that night or not, his fighting style is not that of which makes excellent preparation for Mayweather’s. Margarito engages with abandon making him easy to find and significantly less work to approach. He was never particularly quick or elusive. A defanged Margarito is a much better opponent to face at an advanced age then a slick speedster with uncanny ring generalship.

It is not the Mosley cannot win the bout. He will probably win rounds simply for looking like the guy trying. His speed will require Mayweather to be mindful and probably more cautious about what he does, but it will not stop Mayweather from doing what he wants. To claim victory, he is going to have to put forth a sustained effort of a man 10 years his junior. He might land that perfect punch, but he cannot count on it as his first challenge is simply to land effectively and often enough to score points.

There was a time when Mosley had everything he needed to make Mayweather question his ability to claim victory, but that was a long time ago. For those of you that have followed Mosley’s career probably heard him talk about his “power boxing” style which was essentially a strategy based on a large volume of punches delivered with force. It was a style that propelled Mosley to a gawdy record and left opponents bewildered.

Power boxing is not something that Mosley has displayed much of since moving up to welterweights. After his brief obsession with being the strongest guy in the ring, he seems to have gravitated more towards a style based on speed and agility. Unfortunately, as he has aged, he has become more predictable and repetitive. His strength, conditioning, speed, and experience have generally been enough to beat lesser opponents, but the deterioration of style has not proven sufficient to perform well against top flight opposition over the last several years.

Mayweather is excellent at studying his opponents and would be hard to imagine him not being prepared to deal with any of the varieties of styles Mosley has displayed in recent years. Look for Mayweather to expose the weaknesses in Mosley’s approach and force the older fighter to do things that expend valuable energy reducing Mosley’s options. By the end of the fight, Mayweather should be in complete control and should have enough points on the scorecards for victory. However, given my recent track record of predicting fights after publishing a long analysis, you should probably bet on Mosley via KO.;-)

April 28, 2010