Has Jake Paul fought better opposition than Tommy Fury?

The build-up to Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor provoked strong emotions and extreme takes in equal measure. For many of us within the boxing industry, the preoccupation was with the betting odds. As MMA fans fell over themselves to back McGregor, the odds on a Mayweather stoppage – seemingly the only realistic outcome  – hit around 3/5. I recall laying about £500 to make £300 thanks to Mayweather’s 10^th-round win but then, for months afterwards, regretting not having gambled life-changing money. As Jake Paul vs Tommy Fury approaches on February 25, there is a temptation to compensate for the over-caution of 2017.

On the surface, there are similarities. Fury, while only boasting eight professional contests (12 amateur bouts), has been around boxing his entire life and is the younger brother of the world heavyweight champion. Yes, he has become widely known due to his celebrated sibling and an appearance on reality TV show Love Island, but a certain pedigree is assumed. Conversely, Jake Paul, while perhaps a natural athlete who competed in several sports as a kid, did not set foot in a boxing gym until 2018. Unlike McGregor, he had no serious combat sports background and despite the undeniable strides since taken, Jake should perhaps be a wider underdog than the Irishman was. However, “The Problem Child” is actually the favourite with bookmakers and the lifelong boxer winning by KO/TKO – the result which earned many of us some cash back in 2017 – is a highly attractive 11/2.

But let’s delve a little deeper. Muscular Fury has ended four of his eight fights inside the distance, but the combined record of those opponents is a derisory 24-176-3. Prospects in the UK are often fed a diet of hopeless journeymen early on but that is egregious even by those standards. Tommy has completed just 20 professional rounds and half of his adversaries had no wins coming into their fights; three of the four remain winless. The two fighters Fury has met with winning records both took him the distance – Jordan Grant has since been stopped, as has Daniel Bocianski.

Not only has Fury faced relatively undemanding opposition, but he’s also been worryingly inactive due largely to his external commitments. “TNT” turned pro four years ago, averaging two fights per year – common for a world-level operator, but anathema to a prospect on the rise.

It is hard to compare the embryonic career of Jake Paul because he has not been fighting boxers, but we know he’s had six contests in three years (22 completed rounds) and been working diligently in the gym between bouts. Paul certainly has other things on his plate but has toiled hard to bridge the gap opened by his late start. He last competed in October, dropping and outscoring UFC legend Anderson Silva, but Fury will have been out of the ring for 10 months by the time their showdown in Saudi Arabia rolls around.

As noted, Fury is the first actual boxer Paul has met but that does not mean he has feasted on knockovers. Silva is 47 but notoriously defeated Julio Cesar Chavez Jr – a perennial disappointment, sure, but still a former world champion from a fighting family – in 2021. Ben Askren and Tyron Woodley (twice) – MMA stars both in their time – were similarly vanquished by Paul. They cannot claim significant boxing skill – Askren especially was far more of a wrestling specialist in his mixed martial arts career – but are combat athletes who train at a very high level. If you take a deeper dive into Paul’s record the progression makes logical sense. He started off fighting a fellow YouTuber, then a basketball player before Askren, a fighter but one not known for striking. Then came a better striker in Woodley, followed by Silva who had a win over a boxer and now Fury, the first ‘proper’ pro.

I would back Silva and maybe even Woodley to defeat the journeymen Fury has swept aside. While Fury has fought only boxers, you could make a justifiable argument that Paul has beaten the superior opposition. It all serves to level the playing field ahead of a curiosity clash that could prove closer than many anticipate.