Anthony Joshua vs Tyson Fury - What the stats predict

It’s been a huge week for British boxing, with Tyson Fury beating Deontay Wilder to claim the WBC heavyweight title.

Along with Anthony Joshua, the two British fighters now hold all of the division’s belts - with many calling for a unification fight.

If the two were to meet in the ring, the latest stats show that it could be round 6 where Joshua takes down his opponent.

In data collected by JD, the two boxers’ records were pit against each other and metrics such as knockouts by round, average punches thrown and landed per round, and highest output round were analysed.

AJ’s strongest hope could be found looking at his highest output record, which is the round where a fighter lands and throws the most punches. In AJ’s ‘best’ round, compared to Fury, he lands 16 punches from 41 thrown – a success rate of 39% and would equal out at getting hit once every 11 seconds!

Compare this to Fury’s highest output round, the 10^th, here he throws an impressive 62 punches, but only hit his intended target with 24% (15), one less than AJ, which could make all the difference in the ring.

Looking at average more punches per round offers Fury hope. The Gypsy King typically throws an impressive 47 punches in a round, with the fighter landing just under a quarter of them (12). If you’re in the ring with him, you’re getting hit, on average, every 15 seconds.

Joshua, on the other hand, lands just one less punch than Fury, on average, with 11 in a typical round of his. That’s from 35 attempted hits to his opponent, meaning his success ratio is slightly better than his potential challenger, at 31%.

In terms of professional careers, it’s Fury who has stepped into the ring the most and can offer the most experience. The Manchester-born bouter has fought 31 times as a pro over his 12-year career, compared to AJ who has seven fewer fights – although Joshua can add his two-year amateur stint to his CV.

Regarding professional knockouts, both boxers are tied on 21. But given AJ has fewer pro fights, his record betters Fury with a 91% KO rate to 70%.

Looking at when the two fighters knock out their opponents could give us interesting insight into what round a potential encounter could be decided. If AJ is to take the W, expect him to do so early on. The two-time world champ has 16 KOs in the opening three rounds of his fights so far, an astonishing 76% of his match-ups have been over just a quarter of the way through. AJ’s most lethal round is the second, where he has bested eight opponents.

For Fury, who has fewer knockout results in his career, it’s the fifth round where he is most prolific, having taken out 4 fighters at that stage of the fight.