Errol Spence vs Danny Garcia – is Texan still ‘The Truth’ after awful accident?

The recent mini-sensation regarding Terence Crawford and his seemingly inevitable split from Top Rank can only be good news for longtime rival Errol Spence as he approaches an incredibly intriguing fight with former two-weight ruler Danny Garcia on December 5.

The widely disseminated comments from Top Rank head honcho Bob Arum regarding three-division king and current WBO welterweight champ Crawford – all of which can be best paraphrased as ‘great fighter, doesn’t promote himself enough, loses me money’ – simply confirmed what many fans and pundits already suspected, that the partnership between ‘Bud’ and Bob is not long for this sport. Despite later congenial moves, this could still lead to Crawford, fresh from beating Kell Brook last week, finally ‘crossing the street’ to Al Haymon’s Premier Boxing Champions (PBC) and taking on the best welterweights in the world, among whom Spence is no lower than number two on the planet.

Spence getting past Garcia is by no means a foregone conclusion however. If it wasn’t already a tough task, the unknown factor relating to Errol’s recovery from a horrific car crash in October last year, during which he flipped his Ferrari several times, makes it even harder to confidently pick a winner. Spence, the WBC and IBF champion, is making all the right noises and deserves major credit for facing such a formidable challenger when no one, himself included, can truly know how robust he remains and if he’ll stand up to Garcia over 12 hard rounds.

Regardless, the strong, technically adept Texan is somewhat surprisingly a big favourite with the oddsmakers. On average, Errol Spence Jr is a -433 favorite over Danny Garcia, whose moneyline has an average of +320. The current odds give Spence a 77.2% chance to win and Garcia a 22.8% chance (excluding a draw). As sports betting becomes regulated state by state, you can take comfort in knowing your state will either have online or retail options for betting.

If Spence is anything less than 100%, both he and the bookies could be in for a bit of a beating. Garcia was a unified king at 140lbs and has not been clearly defeated in his career, his setbacks against Keith Thurman and Shawn Porter proving closely contested affairs. A good technician with a potent left hook, Garcia’s pivotal flaw is that he produces an inconsistent workrate, a big disadvantage against a prime Spence, a southpaw with a busy jab and a master of distance.

Porter pushed Spence hard in the latter’s most recent contest, while Garcia comfortably outscored Ivan Redkach in January. At 32, Garcia may be ever so slightly on the decline and the aforementioned odds can be justified, if not for the intangible effect of the accident on Spence’s body and his psyche. Spence has long been a boxer who, if all else fails, can fall back on his innate physicality and mental strength. If either of those are even partially eroded, Danny Garcia remains a good enough fighter to take full advantage.

It is delicately poised, and Terence Crawford will be one of many watching with interest.