The Big PPV Preview

Alfonso Gomez - A recognizable name due to his success in the Contender TV series, who has scored two wins since his beating at the hands of Miguel Cotto. Gomez showed a lot of heart in the Cotto fight, but his limitations against elite boxers were revealed as well. Fought only two weeks ago, defeating a trial horse Raul Munoz in Hawaii, so Gomez should be in terrific shape. In this fight Gomez will need to rely on his underused jab to keep pace and stop volume punching Soto-Karass from establishing a rhythm. Gomez showed in his best wins, against Arturo Gatti and Ben Tackie, that he has the brains to overcome an opponent who lacks the speed to produce offensive variety. Did well to counterpunch both Gatti and Tackie, and his blows do more damage than a 38% kayo ratio suggests. Still, I think he lacks the handspeed to hang with faster or more talented boxers in a pretty loaded welterweight division. Can Gomez climb back into title contention at age 29? Beating a strong Soto-Karass would suggest he has one more run in him.

Jesus Soto-Karass - This lanky Mexican is a big welterweight with lots of physical presence, and if Soto-Karass worked harder in the gym he could become the next Antonio Margarito. I don’t just say that because the two are sparring partners either. Soto-Karass reminds me just as much of one-time contender Jose Luis Lopez (who gave Ike Quartey a tough fight), since his cerebral maturity has not caught up with his aptitude in the ring. The fact that Soto-Karass came in a pound over the weight limit at yesterday’s weigh-in shows his lack of professionalism once again. There is no in-between with Soto-Karass, he either looks fantastic or ordinary. Had one bad stretch of fights where he lost three consecutive fights, early in his career, when he was overmatched against undefeated boxers. Showed mental toughness by overcoming that, then began his current four year undefeated streak. While not a world beater yet, Soto-Karass will give anyone a rough run for their money and is a fun TV fighter.

Verdict – This fight should be entertaining, and I am glad it was chosen to open the PPV telecast with a bang. Neither man is a defensive genius, and both like to come up the middle at opponents. The pair has shown in the past that they are willing to take chances to emerge victorious, and neither seems to have much respect for the others skill set. Gomez is the smarter boxer, but that Soto-Karass has the edge in skill and intangibles. The fight should be close, and I think it has the chance to end suddenly. Soto-Karass has enough speed to catch Gomez with something he does not see for the flashy kayo, and if not has the pressure style to wear down Gomez late. Either way, I see Soto-Karass as the winner in a crowd pleasing fight.

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.    (40-0-1) vs. Troy Rowland (25-2)

Troy Rowland – This Michigan native is an exact fit for the term ‘Midwest opponent’, which Chavez Jr.’s team seems to look for in opponents. The term is a kind way of saying that the favorite should win the fight with few problems. Rowland is a good boxer, and in the amateur he won the Michigan Golden Gloves three times. However, that success has not converted to the pro’s, where Rowland’s lack of handspeed and 26% kayo ratio combined to see him lose convincingly the two times he stepped up in competition. Not only that, Rowland has only fought twice since 2005, but at least those two fights were this year. Rowland has good size, at six feet tall, and his jab and chin are both of quality. The Michigander also comes into every fight in great shape, but at age 34 his fitness has to be considered an issue. Rowland is an honest boxer who might have given Chavez Jr. trouble six years ago, but will have to summon his best to survive now.

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. – It’s not easy being the son of a legend, but nearly everyone’s patience has worn thin waiting for Chavez Jr. to step up his level of competition. An opponent like Rowland would be acceptable if Chavez were fighting on a card in Mexico or a minor cable telecast, but for a major PPV more should be expected in terms of opposition if he is to be featured before such a large audience. Chavez Jr. is learning on the job (with no amateur experience) and has struggled against mediocre opposition. A lot of work remains to be done on defense, but he is solid on offense minus his daddy is fearsome body attack. Why fans should pay for the privilege of watching him evolve is beyond me, and he is taking up a spot on a marquee undercard that could be given to a fighter willing to face tough opposition. Little J.C is 23, and his body is finally developing into that of a legitimate jr. middleweight. Jr.’s fundamentals are sound, but his punches lack thud and he has gone the distance against his best opponents because of it. Seems stuck at this level of opposition, and his last fight was against equally pedestrian Jason LeHoullier. Chavez Jr. is coming of age with a plethora of other talented young jr. middleweights (Fernando Angulo, Vanes Martirosyan, Joe Greene, and James Kirkland to name a few), but will probably never have to face any of them the way Top Rank is moving him.

Verdict – A best case scenario is that Chavez Jr. looks spectacular and knocks out Rowland to justify his presence on the PPV. A kayo for Chavez Jr. is no given since Rowland is capable on defense, and showed good recuperative skills against hard punching Epfianio Mendoza. To stop Rowland Chavez will have to throw combination punches, and Chavez Jr. will need to cut off the ring as well. I’m not sure he can put both together, and am going with little JC by a wide unanimous decision.

Daniel Santos (32-3-1) vs. Yuri Foreman (27-0)

Daniel Santos – The former Olympic bronze medalist, representing Puerto Rico he posted a 117-3 amateur record, has won world titles in two weight classes while recording a 32-3-1 record with 23 stoppages. Because of his impressive skill-set some see Santos’ career as unfulfilled, since it should have encompassed more marquee fights against elite fighters (he holds a victory over Antonio Margarito in 2004). I think inactivity and bad management have combined to prevent Santos from finding a large fan base. There is much to like about Santos, like the one punch kayo he scored over Joachim Alcine to win back the WBA title in his last fight. A southpaw with good power in both hands, Santos can also box and surprises opponents with quick bursts of punches out of a defensive posture. Santos can be hit, stopped once and dropped on a couple occasions, but he is a physical presence who more than held his own against Margarito. Lost his title to smooth boxing Sergiy Dzinziruk (by three points on every card) in 2004, and the 34-year-old surprised many by regaining his title on the road in Canada. Santos has to be aware that this is a must win situation if he is to cash in on this late career resurgence. For that Santos will have to fight more than his once a year pace over the last four years.

Yuri Foreman – The likable kid from Belarus, a devout Orthodox Jew now living in Brooklyn, has been a great story since the day he strapped on the gloves at age seven. Went 76-5 as an amateur wining three Israeli titles, and his smooth style as a pro is reminiscent of a Paul Spadafora or Ivan Calderon. Yuri frustrates foes into mistakes through his elusiveness and swift counterattacks. Foreman is gifted with a great sense of distance, using his legs to find the right balance between remaining in striking distance and maintaining a safe zone with his reflexes and speed. I would not categorize Foreman’s handspeed as blazing, but they are fast and his blows become more accurate as the rounds wear on. Foreman’s speed is maximized with circling and pivoting movements, from which he attacks by darting in as opponents reposition themselves. Yuri’s reflexes are excellent, and he employs that part of his arsenal particularly well on defense. A 29% kayo ratio speaks to his lack of power, but despite this Foreman’s fights are not without drama. His best win came over fellow prospect Anthony Thompson, two years ago, while his most impressive victory was a gut check fight against Andrey Tsurkan.

Verdict – This could be a stinker of a fight if Santos no longer has the feet or stamina to stay maintain contact with Foreman. I was surprised to find out that Foreman has never faced anyone of Santos stance, the WBA champion will be the first southpaw Foreman has been in the ring with as a pro. However, Santos has been inactive for nearly a year-and-a-half (in that time Foreman had three bouts), and his timing is sure to suffer because of it early in the fight. Foreman will find solace that Santos lost to a similar boxer to him in Sergiy Dzinziruk, but Santos has faced much better competition overall. A tough fight to pick, but in the end I think Santos finds the range and begins to land more punches as the rounds wear on. Foreman is smart but Santos can match wits with him, and there is no comparison in punching power. I like Foreman to survive, but it will get messy and his corner might have to step in late in the fight. I’m picking Santos by clear decision after some boring feel out rounds early.

Manny Pacquiao (49-3-2) vs. Miguel Cotto (34-1)

Miguel Cotto – Let’s start with Cotto’s one loss to Antonio Margarito. I think it is safe to assume Margarito entered that fight with loaded gloves, and because of that the result has a mental asterisk put next to it by the many boxing insiders. I, for one, feel comfortable making that statement. In his last fight Cotto had a tough time against Ghanaian punisher Joshua Clottey, but Clottey is a very good fighters and Cotto fought through a very bad cut. That win should have cleared any mental hurdles or physical challenges that might have remained from the Margarito fight for Cotto. In terms of ability Cotto still has it all, and might be beginning to regain some of that defensive astuteness he showed before winning a world title in 2004. I don’t like that Cotto enters this fight with a new head trainer, after firing his Uncle amid tabloid circumstances, but the pair seem to mesh well and Cotto is pretty much a finished product. The Puerto Rican does not seem the type to let this distract him in the ring. Cotto is simply one of the most well rounded boxers in any weight class, and can win a fight in multiple ways. The way he can beat Pacquiao in my mind is with his powerful jab (he is a converted southpaw), but it is imperative that the jab is crisp and accurate from round one on.

Manny Pacquiao - I won’t bother to waste our educated reader’s time with a lengthy introduction of Pacquiao, since he is the favorite and his rise has been well chronicled by media from Time magazine to the Jimmy Kimmel show. The Pacman’s & Cotto’s emphatic and crowd pleasing styles have established them as two of the sport’s biggest attractions. I would add that they are also two of the most likable boxers outside of the ring as well. Pacquiao rightly enters the favorite given his domination of Oscar De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton, and because Cotto did not perform up to the level expected of him by some against Joshua Clottey. Speed is the key for Pacquiao, and the way he flirts with disaster by flashing in at opponents is breathtaking. Pacquiao is just as big as Cotto in stature, and their reach is also identical at 67 inches. A southpaw stance is another factor in Pacquiao’s favor, although Cotto has knocked out all three of his southpaw foes. Neither man expects an easy fight, and few expect it to be one sided. Throughout their careers Pacquiao and Cotto have been respectful of their opponents, and the sport. This is the kind of event boxing can be proud of, and has developed into a showcase that should receive sizable media attention it has.

Result – Pacquiao is special, but let’s not diminish Cotto or his accomplishments. The one clear advantage Pacman has over Cotto is speed. Anyone who discounts that asset should ask Ricky Hatton how important it is. Cotto has been hurt by speed before, most notably against DeMarcus Corley and Zab Judah, so he needs to be weary of this. The key to overcoming a faster opponent is to disrupt him with a well timed jab, which Cotto has in his arsenal. Cotto needs to get out of the early rounds unscathed, and then begin to apply pressure to try and force Pacquiao to fight backing up. As the rounds wear on I think Cotto gains the advantage, and he has shown that his punches retain their accuracy against a great fighter like Shane Mosley. I am in the minority. I have liked Cotto since they announced the fight, believing his combination of physicality and skill was a bridge too far for Pacquiao. Reviewing Pacman’s last couple fights he is coming forward at will, and I don’t think that will happen against a stronger (in the legs especially) Cotto. When Marquez pushed back Pacman had problems, I think Cotto pushes back after the third round and steals the fight in the championship rounds. Cotto will be hard pressed early, and I believe he will not let some early frustration get to him in, and slowly begin to take to the offensive as the rounds edge higher. Pacquiao won’t go gently into the night, and probably stage a round eight through ten rally, but Cotto is the consummate professional who will find the answer to the Pacman puzzle in the championship rounds.